Why shouldn't the UK drill for new oil and gas in the North Sea?

Would new oil and gas projects in the North Sea provide jobs for people in the UK? 

No, not really.  

Stats show the decline of the North Sea basin caused jobs in oil and gas production to fall by a third between 2014 and 2023. The UK government have reported more than 70,000 jobs have been lost in the last decade alone. By contrast, the CBI found that the UK’s ‘net zero’ economy supports over 1 million full-time jobs, spanning energy, manufacturing, construction, engineering and professional services.   

Because there isn’t much oil and gas left to drill for, opening new fields like Rosebank and Jackdaw won't create many more jobs. Rosebank for instance is predicted to only create 255 new jobs over its lifetime, and Jackdaw will create only 27 direct, full-time jobs.  

The transition to renewable energy will create many jobs, and more jobs if we ensure that more of the manufacturing is UK-based. Strathclyde University’s Fraser of Allander Institute reported that in 2022, renewables in Scotland created 47,000 jobs and supported £15.5 billion of output. A report by Confederation of British Industry stated that Net-zero-related industries are supporting more than 105,000 jobs in Scotland and contributing £10.2bn to the economy.  

The UK's Climate Change Committee (CCC)'s 2023 analysis suggested that the loss of jobs from the phasing out of fossil fuels would be far outweighed by the 'extensive job creation' that the transition to net zero would bring in sectors including renewable energy generation, retrofitting and electric vehicles, although this is dependent on the government implementing measures to support and upskill the workforce.   

Would new oil and gas projects in the North Sea bring down energy bills? 

No. What people in the UK pay is influenced by the market price for oil and gas. UK oil and gas prices are set according to the global market, so producing more of them domestically won't lower bills. 

In 2022, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) said that increasing UK oil and gas extraction was not expected to ‘materially affect global oil or gas prices, as the UK energy market is highly connected to international markets and the potential supply [is] relatively small’.   

The Labour government also said: “Future exploration in the North Sea is too marginal to make a difference to the overall supply in an international market… New licences to explore new fields wouldn’t make any difference to the prices set by international markets and paid by UK billpayers.” 

Recent analysis by the Smith School at the University of Oxford found that, even if the UK maximised North Sea oil and gas and used all the money to subsidise lower energy bills, the impact would be limited – household bills could fall between £16 and £82 per year, or 1-4.6% a year. By contrast, a UK powered fully by renewable energy, instead of buying fuel on an ongoing basis, was estimated to save households up to £441 per year. 

In March 2026, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) said that drilling for oil and gas “will not reduce bills or deliver energy security”. 

It’s also the case that the vast majority of the oil and gas that proposed North Sea projects Rosebank and Jackdaw would produce will be sold overseas anyway. These projects are owned by private companies who will sell the oil and gas at international rates, meaning its price is determined by the international market and will not be kept for the UK. 

In the case of Rosebank for example, 90% of the fuel that would be extracted from its oil would most likely be exported. 

Would UK fossil gas from the North Sea generate less CO2? 

The claim that UK North Sea fossil gas produces less CO2 is misleading.  

This claim comes from the idea that imported fossil gas has higher overall emissions than that of the UK's North Sea because of the energy-intensive liquification, transportation and regasification processes.  

But the vast majority of emissions from fossil gas come from burning it for energy. When that is taken into account, UK North Sea fossil gas emissions are not a lot lower than those of imported fossil gas. 

A large amount of UK fossil gas supply comes from Norway, and the Norwegian pipeline has even lower emissions than the UK's supplies, meaning drilling for more in the UK North Sea would not have lower CO2 emissions than a lot of what the country already imports. 

A bigger problem is that increasing UK production is liable to increase the amount of fossil fuels extracted overall, which can far outweigh the marginal benefits of different types of oil and gas over other types. Analysis by the CCC in 2022 found that any small 'emissions advantage' of UK domestic production over imports would be outweighed if increased UK production led to more fossil-fuel production overall. Estimates of this effect vary, but the CCC found in principle that the extra oil and gas extracted would support a larger global market for oil and gas overall.  

The UK Supreme Court has also found that it is not the case that increases in UK North Sea production would perfectly ‘substitute’ for production elsewhere. This implies that increases in production increase the amount of oil and gas produced and used overall, making ‘cleaner’ oil and gas actually a problem of ‘more’ oil and gas. 

Why is the UK banning new oil and gas licenses when we're told few other countries are?  

It's not the case that the UK is the only country who has banned new oil and gas licenses. Other nations to do so, including Ireland, France, Portugal and Colombia. In fact, 25 countries and 27 subnational jurisdictions have fossil fuel production restrictions. 

There is an international coalition of nations that have pledged to end new oil and gas production - the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA). This group helped to convene the first meeting of nations wanting to take immediate action to phase out fossil fuels, which took place in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April this year with 57 nations represented.  

The UK has a critical interest in other countries cutting their emissions to net zero as soon as possible and can advance this interest by advocating for strong action and leading by example. Its position as a climate leader means it is in a strong position to influence other countries to follow suit.   

Decarbonising also has benefits to the people of the UK when it comes to the economy, health and the environment.