Legal briefing on the Climate Change Bill: the scientific case for an 80% target and the proposed review of the 2050 target [120]

Legal briefing on the Climate Change Bill: the scientific case for an 80% target and the proposed review of the 2050 target

June 2008 | By Karla Hill

The Government originally proposed a target for 2050 of 60% in the Climate Change Bill. This figure was widely acknowledged as out of date according to the science. Following extensive campaigning by NGOs and with wide cross-party support for an 80% target, the Government requested advice from the new Committee on Climate Change and, in the final stages of the Bill, agreed to increase the target to 80%. This process shows the difficulties in setting long-term targets and adopting policies to meet the targets where irrelevant political and economic concerns can be used to override the scientific evidence. ClientEarth’s legal analysis of the issue in June 2008 raised concerns with the terms of reference for the Committee to consider the appropriate 2050 target, and the use of lists of relevant factors in the legislation.

Summary

The Climate Change Bill will set a legally binding long term target for reducing the UK’s carbon emissions by 2050 and sets a statutory framework for achieving the 2050 target through carbon budgets and advice by an independent expert body, the climate change committee.

The proposed target for reducing emissions by 60% by 2050 is based on out-of-date science.

The 60% target is based on a recommendation that dates from the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution’s (RCEP) 22nd report, Energy – the Changing Climate of 2000, and which was adopted by the Government in 2003. Since 2003 our scientific knowledge about climate change has advanced significantly and a 2050 target set at 60% clearly fails to reflect the best up-to-date scientific knowledge about climate change. Despite accepting the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the most authoritative and comprehensive statement on climate change, the Government has declined to update the 2050 target by reference to the IPCC’s definitive Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007.

The UK is bound to the objective of avoiding dangerous climate change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and this is reflected in the long-standing commitment by the UK along with the EU and other European governments to adopting a course of action such that global average temperatures should not be allowed exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels.(1) According to a group of leading scientists, including the former chairman of the RCEP at the time of its 2000 recommendation, “In tackling the global challenge of climate change, governments must follow the latest science which clearly shows the need for the UK to reduce its CO2 emissions by at least 80%(2) by 2050.” The scientific evidence assessed by the IPCC as well as reports commissioned by the UK Government make it clear that to have a realistic chance of limiting global temperature increase to less than 2°C, we must aim to stabilise emissions at around 450ppmv2-equivalent, which implies cuts in the UK of 80% to 90% by 2050.

The Government’s proposed terms of reference for the climate change committee to advise on whether the 2050 target should be increased to up to 80% are flawed because they are not tied to developments in scientific knowledge about climate change.

As the analysis in this paper shows, the approach to the proposed review of the 2050 target is seriously and dangerously flawed. The drafting of the terms of reference set by the Government for the climate change committee to advise on the 2050 target places the climate change committee’s advice at risk of failing to reflect the latest climate science. Instead of focusing on the scientific evidence, the Government will seek advice based on a cost-benefit analysis and consideration of the international context, and also require consideration of the factors set out in clause 11 of the Climate Change Bill. Clause 11 contains matters that are irrelevant to a decision on whether the 2050 target should be amended in light of developments in science since 2000, and it is an error to apply these factors to the review of the 2050 target.

The key determinant of the 2050 target review for the UK must be developments in scientific knowledge about climate change since the RCEP 2000 report. The climate change committee must be directed to advise on establishing a science-based target that will update the RCEP’s 2050 target in accordance with the scientific developments since 2000. The 2050 target must reflect the best up-to-date science on what the UK’s contribution should be to reducing emissions to restrict global temperature rise to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

1 “Pre-industrial” is taken as 1861, the first year for which accurate thermometer records are available.

2 Letter “UK Climate Change Bill targets are based on out-of-date science” dated 21 January 2008 signed by Sir Tom Blundell [former Chair Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution], Sir John Houghton, Sir John Lawton, and Professor Norman Myers (in their personal capacity).

Download PDF: Full Briefing